Nationwide — forecast 2026
2 160
likely range 2037–2283
last season (2025): 2205 (-2%)
last season (2025): 2205 (-2%)
Participants = distinct swimmers (ages 10–16) who swam their district's IKM preliminary. The forecast is a linear trend for the ages eligible in every season, plus the ages added in 2024 (boys 10, girls 16) at their recent level, with an ~80% prediction band. Open entry — no qualifying cuts.
Participants by district — trend & forecast
Dashed line and hollow point = forecast (2026).
| District | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Forecast 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etelä 1 | 374 | 373 | 421 | 453 | 450 422–478 | |
| Etelä 2 | 307 | 317 | 353 | 374 | 378 363–392 | |
| Keski/itä | 249 | 266 | 285 | 296 | 305 274–336 | |
| Häme/kaakkois | 286 | 274 | 289 | 295 | 279 265–293 | |
| Pohjois | 232 | 270 | 291 | 256 | 272 195–349 | |
| Varsinais | 296 | 252 | 252 | 284 | 246 181–312 | |
| Länsi | 235 | 247 | 227 | 247 | 230 178–282 |